Tuesday, 3 July 2012

Retirement Investing Today on Monevator

If you are a regular reader of Monevator you will have noticed that I have just had what I hope is the first of a regular series of quarterly Private Investor Market Roundups published.  If you are not a regular reader then it could be worth a look.  While it follows the usual Retirement Investing Today format of non emotional fact based analysis it introduces a number of new data sets which aren’t seen on this blog including a look at:
-    The stock markets of the top 10 countries by GDP including pricing (both nominal and real), P/E and Dividend Yield.  The countries are the US, China, Japan, Germany, France, Brazil, UK, Italy, Russia and Canada.
-    The nominal and real HaliWide Index which is the average of both the Halifax and Nationwide House Prices Indices.
-    The nominal and real performance of commodities including Gold, WTI Spot Crude, Soyabeans, Copper and Natural Gas.

Sunday, 1 July 2012

Introducing the Greater Fool UK House Price Index

I now track 4 UK house price data sets.  These are:
-    The Rightmove House Price Index.  This index tracks asking prices of properties as they come onto the market.  Rightmove claims their dataset covers over 90% of the market so you would expect it to be pretty accurate in terms of seller’s first expectations of what they will achieve for their property.  The dataset is not seasonally adjusted.
-    The Halifax House Price Index.  This index is based on loan approvals agreed by Halifax Bank of Scotland.  The dataset that I use is the not seasonally adjusted, All Houses, All Buyers set.
-    The Nationwide House Price Index.  This index is based on loan approvals agreed by Nationwide Building Society.  I use the actual Average House Prices presented and so am using a not seasonally adjusted dataset.
-    The Land Registry House Price Index.  This contains the house prices for all transactions in England and Wales.  This includes both mortgages (which the Halifax and Nationwide would be included within) and non-mortgages (cash transactions).

Thursday, 28 June 2012

UK Average Weekly Earnings – June 2012 Update

The Office for National Statistics reports that the Average Weekly Earnings for the Whole Economy including bonuses and allowing for seasonal adjustment is now £467.  This is £1 more than the previous month and annualised is £24,284.  Breaking this figure down between the Public Sector and the Private Sector reveals the Public Sector to be still coming out on top by some 3%.  The Average Public Sector employee earns £479 per week compared to that of the Private Sector which funds those earnings (of course in conjunction with a lot of government borrowing) at £465.

Sunday, 24 June 2012

The S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted PE (aka S&P 500 or Shiller PE10 or CAPE) – June 2012 Update

The S&P 500 closed on Friday at 1,335.  By my calculations I also have as Reported Earnings (using a combination of actual and estimated earnings) at $92.33.  Combining these two pieces of data gives us an S&P 500 P/E Ratio of 14.5. 

While interesting, for my own investment purposes, I do not use the P/E ratio.  Instead I use what I have called the Shiller PE10 which is shown in my first chart (effectively an S&P 500 cyclically adjusted PE or CAPE for short).  This method is used and was made famous by Professor Robert Shiller.  It is simply the ratio of Real (ie after inflation) S&P 500 Monthly Prices to 10 Year Real (ie after inflation) Average Earnings.

Tuesday, 19 June 2012

UK Inflation - May 2012

Today’s post looks at UK Inflation and specifically the Retail Prices Index (RPI) and the Consumer Prices Index (CPI).  It is not the most exciting post that I write, however it is an important piece of data for us to look at as it is needed to run a lot of the analysis that you see on Retirement Investing Today.  At this point in time the RPI is changing year on year at the rate of 3.1% with the index itself shown in my first chart.  This chart clearly shows the index still trending away from the long run trendline.

My second chart shows the annualised change in the RPI on a quarterly, six monthly and annual basis.  On an annualised quarterly basis we are seeing inflation still high at 4.2%.