tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post6571318628982228293..comments2023-05-18T10:37:34.608+01:00Comments on <a href="http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com">Retirement Investing Today</a>: Are we back to blowing asset bubbles already?RetirementInvestingTodayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03088383743670046657noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-63165615138427079092010-04-14T22:13:18.727+01:002010-04-14T22:13:18.727+01:00Thanks for sharing UKVI. As you think and develop...Thanks for sharing UKVI. As you think and develop your work further I'll be interested to see what conclusions you come up with.<br /><br />It always looks so easy when you see the data presented on this or your blog but I know how much effort goes into it.<br /><br />Wishing you much investing success.RetirementInvestingTodayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03088383743670046657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-3132110952186859522010-04-14T12:01:22.824+01:002010-04-14T12:01:22.824+01:00You haven't misunderstood, you've done a g...You haven't misunderstood, you've done a great job of extending it. I had been meaning to do what you've done but hadn't got round to it. I agree with all the holes in the data, mostly size and recency, however it's all I've got so far! <br /><br />I do think you have a point though. I definitely need to think some more about UK PE10 levels, but not too much as I don&#John Kinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06300337494606149679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-70046642284994308062010-04-13T21:40:26.348+01:002010-04-13T21:40:26.348+01:00Thanks for the data. I'll be sure to have a g...Thanks for the data. I'll be sure to have a good look through it in the near future.<br /><br />The inflation measure I like to use for the UK is RPI dataset CHAW. Throwing those figures into your spreadsheet shows a peak CAPE of 28.9 in 2000.<br /><br />The obvious spot straight away is that the dataset is very small and very recent. Also, you should have only 9 points 2002 to 2010 but RetirementInvestingTodayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03088383743670046657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-28199082195910398772010-04-13T20:43:02.239+01:002010-04-13T20:43:02.239+01:00I have some PE ratio data for the FTSE 100 going b...I have some PE ratio data for the FTSE 100 going back to 1993. I found this data in a forum post on Motley Fools (not exactly peer reviewed but it's the best I could find). The values seem reasonable so I've plugged them into a spreadsheet you can hopefully find at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/5236691/PE%20Based%20Asset%20Allocation%202.xls. On the 'current pe x 3' tab there's aJohn Kinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06300337494606149679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-55021386668637704652010-04-13T19:50:42.889+01:002010-04-13T19:50:42.889+01:00Hi UKVI
As always thanks for the valued comments....Hi UKVI<br /><br />As always thanks for the valued comments. I'm not convinced, however I don't have long run PE10 data for the FTSE 100 or equivalent to compare directly with my S&P 500 or ASX 200 data which I publish here. Do you have a dataset? If yes, what is the long run average and percentiles for PE10? That's the only way we'll know<br /><br />From what I can see RetirementInvestingTodayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03088383743670046657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-20529822832192862632010-04-13T09:05:48.165+01:002010-04-13T09:05:48.165+01:00Sorry to sound so critical!Sorry to sound so critical!John Kinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06300337494606149679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-51358596276177454532010-04-13T09:04:53.677+01:002010-04-13T09:04:53.677+01:00Hi
Regarding UK equities, I don't think we...Hi<br /><br />Regarding UK equities, I don't think we're in a bubble. If you use real PE10 as a valuation tool it comes up around 14-15, which is low by US standards and low by recent UK standards. <br /><br />The lack of capital gains in your first chart is largely due to mean reversion of UK equities from extreme valuations (PE10 in the high 20's) a decade ago to below average John Kinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06300337494606149679noreply@blogger.com