tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post6547955556747045389..comments2023-05-18T10:37:34.608+01:00Comments on <a href="http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com">Retirement Investing Today</a>: The ASX 200 cyclically adjusted PE ratio (ASX 200 CAPE or ASX200 PE10) – May 2011 UpdateRetirementInvestingTodayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03088383743670046657noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-60269091735392386872012-01-30T09:57:47.158+00:002012-01-30T09:57:47.158+00:00congrats on your site, you are ahead of most pros ...congrats on your site, you are ahead of most pros and your thinking is sound IMO.<br />this data source might be of interest to a curious mind like yours in case you haven't seen it.<br />http://www.bwts.com.au/<br />i've cross checked some of the data and it looks legit, the site's author is well known here in Aus.<br />various PE series for Aus do differ (some are incl lossmakers, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-85835679988226471922011-06-01T01:27:49.718+01:002011-06-01T01:27:49.718+01:00To get a higher long-return one needs to be alloca...To get a higher long-return one needs to be allocating capital around<br />to areas of lower valuations on a continual basis as you are doing.<br />Another way to do this to put the money in the hands of a corporation<br />that is focused on capital allocation and not merely generating<br />profits without great skill of where to invest new capital. Examples<br />are LUC, BRK, WRB. BRK is Julianhttp://www.cochranmusic.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-62753902777764109882011-06-01T01:27:21.147+01:002011-06-01T01:27:21.147+01:00Hi RIT,
Indeed, earnings in both the US and Austr...Hi RIT,<br /><br />Indeed, earnings in both the US and Australia are presently quite<br />above the sustainable level calculated using any of the varieties of<br />on-trend methods. This is putting the problem of debt leveraging<br />aside.<br /><br />Also the US market was indeed very overvalued on average for most of<br />the last 25 years compared to long run average multiples of net<br />Julianhttp://www.cochranmusic.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-60609386451771045612011-05-30T14:06:18.509+01:002011-05-30T14:06:18.509+01:00Hi Julian
Thanks for the compliment.
I fully agr...Hi Julian<br /><br />Thanks for the compliment.<br /><br />I fully agree that it would be great to have data going further back in time. I make this type of comment regularly in my posts. At the moment I have S&P500 PE10 data going back to 1881, ASX200 back to 1993 and FTSE100 back to 1993 (albeit with an averaging fudge for the 1st 10 years). You wouldn't believe how hard or how long RetirementInvestingTodayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03088383743670046657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-36441595960375064612011-05-30T11:11:19.234+01:002011-05-30T11:11:19.234+01:00Absolutely superb analysis. My only criticism is t...Absolutely superb analysis. My only criticism is that it would be of greater value to see the PE10 analysis with data going back a lot further such as to 1890 give a better perspective. I presume the forward one year return series uses longer data but the data range was not shown in the title. The PE10 is much more predictive of 10 year forward returns than the 1 year return as I imagine you Julianhttp://www.cochranmusic.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-21593399604840752332011-05-19T16:21:40.839+01:002011-05-19T16:21:40.839+01:00Hi TF
Thanks for the wishes. Life is settling do...Hi TF<br /><br />Thanks for the wishes. Life is settling down in the UK. All I need now is a job and normality will have resumed and I can enjoy the summer.<br /><br />I think you have my method for the ASX 200 PE10 spot on. Just for clarity I will detail step by step to detail the inflation calcs etc:<br /><br />1. Price is taken from the RBA site that you quote above with the exception of RetirementInvestingTodayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03088383743670046657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2875915890415125655.post-36780199350343539712011-05-19T12:17:24.281+01:002011-05-19T12:17:24.281+01:00Good to have you back on line - I missed your post...Good to have you back on line - I missed your posts.<br /><br />I'd like to understand how you calculate the ASX PE10...<br /><br />I gather price is the index value which you take from the RBA site but could come from a number of sites. Right?<br /><br />And I also understand you get inflation from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Right?<br /><br />But where do you get earnings from? Do TFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12507696615693199821noreply@blogger.com